This is a sobering description from Italy. It is worth reading so we have some idea of what to prepare for as worst case, and also to emphasize the importance of taking what preventive measures we can now. (Tap on the link below to read the full series of messages)
No doubt others will come across other descriptions on Twitter or other networks that are helpful. Please post them on this thread if you think it is useful.
I have to at I saw this tweet and wasn’t sure what to make of it. Are we sure this is not fake news? Although we don’t know the denominator yet and I totally get it that poorly controlled it can spread fast the documented death rate is 2% and mostly the old/infirm. Young, fit and children seem to bear it all robustly… at least according to WHO. I do think we should plan but WHO seems to feel we are more at risk of panic than the virus. Thoughts on the veracity of this tweet?
The account is being replayed widely on UK media. Certainly, looking at the interview of an Italian medic at this news link (apologies, it’s the DM, but still), matters in Italy seem dire.
It makes for interesting reading and is slightly alarmist. Also hard to tell what bits of the story are from him or his respectable friend in the epicenter in Italy. The high number of deaths in Northern Italy is alarming but, doesn’t Italy have a larger older population demographic anyway. Still no good robust information on what has happened in italy. Will wait, watch and see.
Just hope we are securing supply chain for essential medications and using PPE supplies effectively. Looks like may be serious impacts to the supply chain amid all the panic.
I’ve done quite a bit of ICU work over the years (although nothing like @Mat); with the numbers that we know about in North Italy, this totally rings true. ICUs would rapidly be overwhelmed, and brutal triage decisions would have to be made. Staff exposure would compound this massively. And we’d soon run out of kit.
The only way to avoid this fate is to lock down WAY earlier than Italy has. And not be complacent.
Italy imposed measures well into the red; too late. Here is the excellent site it has been taken from:
Thanks Nathan, it’s difficult to distinguish real news from fake and I agree lack of complacency is important.
The other aspect is the risk stratefication by age. Death rates for 55 to 59 year olds are aabout 2.5% and 60 to 65 about 4.8%, rising to roughly 15% (1/6) over 80, with correspondingly larger severely unwell and hospitalised rates. Many of our practice nurses, GPs and SMOs are in these age bands. I am in the 59-60 group myself. This is where Italy is in trouble because not only have they not locked down quickly they also have an inverted age pyramid with a high proportion of older people in their population.
The deaths are often after a couple of weeks and weighted into those with pre existing conditions, which obviously increases robustly with age. My area of paediatrics is unlikely to suffer as badly as adult medical areas but our staff are potentially vulnerable. If we get an early Flu season with RSV hitting our population as well as COVID19 it could get ugly, especially for our kids with cardiac, respiratory, oncologic and immunocompromise diseases.
This chap is a recently retired academic nurse, who is doing 12 minute detailed daily world summaries of COVID-19 every morning UK time. They aren’t flashy, but are accurate and up to date. If you can’t sleep due to COVID anxiety…
Here’s a good site that tracks cases by country. You can click on the headings in the table to re-order the list, for example to get ranking of rate of infection as cases per million population. This is useful to understand the risk for a person having recently travelled from different countries.
I wonder how the data is sourced and how much of it is automated. It would be interesting to look under the hood to know how it works!
